With Ripple’s flagship SWELL conference just months away, the crypto community is buzzing with anticipation over its potential impact on XRP’s market performance. A compelling analysis of historical trends suggests that investors might be in for a dynamic period, with the possibility of two distinct price runs on the horizon.
Crypto analyst Ripple Van Winkle has highlighted a pattern where XRP experiences significant appreciation in the lead-up to and immediate aftermath of in-person SWELL events during bull markets. This historical precedent points to potential surges in October and November 2025, potentially extending into the first quarter of 2026.
Decoding the SWELL Effect: A Look Back in Time
Van Winkle’s thesis leans heavily on observable cycles. The most notable example occurred in 2017, when XRP’s price skyrocketed nearly 200% in the weeks preceding the event amidst a powerful bull run. The pattern repeated in 2018; with former U.S. President Bill Clinton headlining the conference, XRP’s price doubled before undergoing a correction.
The analyst considers the virtual events of 2019 and 2020—held during the pandemic—as outliers. The data indicates that the potent combination of an in-person gathering and a bullish macro environment has historically acted as a powerful catalyst for speculative rallies and increased investor interest.
The Stage Is Set for SWELL 2025
This year’s conference, scheduled for early November in New York, is shaping up to be a major event. Ripple has begun unveiling a roster of high-profile speakers and partners, signaling significant announcements are likely. As a premier platform for the company, SWELL is where Ripple has traditionally unveiled major enterprise blockchain partnerships, updates on its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) initiatives, and new product launches, such as the recently announced RLUSD stablecoin.