Gold concluded the year with a remarkable 66% gain—its strongest annual performance since 1979—firmly holding above $4,300 per ounce. As the precious metal marks its third straight year of advances, one expert suggests this rally is far from over, pointing to a “tectonic shift in global financial markets.” According to Chantelle Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, 2025 could represent the explosive phase of a long-building movement, reshaping investment landscapes for years to come.

In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, Schieven drew a parallel with the slow but powerful movement of Earth’s tectonic plates, noting that after extended periods of gradual change, “there can be an extremely explosive moment.” She believes financial markets are now entering such a phase, driven by structural shifts that favor gold.

Despite concerns that gold has entered overbought territory, Schieven urges investors not to interpret high valuations as a peak. “Even if gold is in bubble territory,” she notes, “that doesn’t mean it’s going down next year—or anytime soon.”

Central Bank Demand and Investor Positioning: A Powerful Combination

A key pillar of support comes from central banks, which have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves since 2022. Schieven expects this trend to continue through 2026, establishing a durable price floor absent in previous cycles. As noted in a recent analysis by Reuters, official sector buying has become a transformative force in commodity markets, reinforcing gold’s long-term valuation.

While institutional accumulation provides stability, Schieven identifies investment demand as the primary catalyst that could propel prices toward $5,000 an ounce in the coming year. She points out that, despite its record run, gold remains underrepresented in most portfolios, especially given today’s macro risks. This suggests ample room for additional capital inflows.

Inflation, Fed Policy, and the Evolving Safe-Haven Role

The Federal Reserve has projected a gradual return to target inflation, but Schieven is skeptical. She highlights persistent structural pressures—including deglobalization, trade fragmentation, and chronic underinvestment in commodities—that are likely to keep inflation elevated. As explored in a detailed report from Bloomberg, these forces complicate traditional monetary policy and redefine safe-haven assets.

In this environment, bonds have become a less reliable store of value, particularly when inflation outpaces yields. Schieven observes that more investors now view gold not merely as a speculative hedge but as a critical portfolio diversifier capable of preserving real returns.

She also notes subtle shifts in Fed strategy, such as balance-sheet adjustments aimed at containing bond yields. While these measures may offer short-term relief, they do little to restore confidence in long-term monetary stability—a void that gold increasingly fills.

Outlook: Volatility and Value on the Path to $5,000

Schieven’s $5,000 price target for gold appears ambitious but feasible within the current macro landscape. She envisions this level as a potential milestone in a broader, multi-year advance. While the long-term trend remains decisively bullish, she cautions that the journey will include periods of high volatility and healthy corrections, offering strategic entry points for attentive investors.

For those navigating today’s uncertain markets, gold’s role continues to evolve from a traditional haven to a strategic necessity in preserving wealth. As structural inflation and geopolitical shifts redefine the financial landscape, this precious metal may well be entering its most consequential chapter yet.

Sources Referenced:

  • Kitco News interview with Chantelle Schieven

  • Reuters analysis on central bank gold demand

  • Bloomberg report on inflation and deglobalization