Ireland’s GDP Grows 3.2% in Q1 2024 as Multinationals Ramp Up Production Ahead of US Tariffs

Ireland’s economy expanded by 3.2% in Q1 2024, driven largely by multinational corporations (MNCs) accelerating production before the implementation of new US tariffs, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO). While the multinational sector fueled growth, the domestic economy saw more modest gains.

Key Economic Highlights

• Annual GDP growth surged to 13.3% compared to Q1 2023.

• Quarterly growth slowed slightly from 4.1% in Q3 2023 and 3.6% in Q4 2023.

• Previous contractions reversed, with GDP shrinking as much as 9.1% year-on-year in Q4 2023 due to multinational sector volatility.

Impact of US Tariffs on Irish Exports

The strong GDP growth in Q1 coincides with a 210.5% surge in Irish exports to the US (reaching €8.7 billion in February) as businesses prepared for new US trade restrictions. Recently, President Donald Trump imposed a 20% tariff on all EU goods, following earlier 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. The measures were postponed for 90 days, giving firms a brief reprieve.

Data Sources and Future Revisions

Enda Behan, a CSO statistician, noted that these preliminary GDP estimates rely on forecasting and limited data, including:

• CSO Large Cases Unit

• Retail sales figures

• Administrative payroll data
  More comprehensive figures will be released in the Quarterly National Accounts in June.

Economic Outlook for 2024-2025

Business group Ibec previously projected 1.7% GDP growth in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, suggesting a potential slowdown after the Q1 surge. However, multinational activity remains a key driver of Ireland’s economic performance.

Conclusion

Ireland’s Q1 2024 GDP growth reflects strong multinational sector activity, partly influenced by anticipation of US tariffs. While the domestic economy grows at a slower pace, export-driven industries continue to shape Ireland’s economic trajectory. Further updates will be provided in the CSO’s June report.