Is Thailand Heading for Another Military Coup? Warning Signs to Watch

Thailand’s political instability raises fears of another military takeover. Here’s why experts believe a coup could be imminent.

Thailand holds the dubious distinction of being the only middle-to-high-income country where military coups remain frequent. Since the 1930s, the nation has witnessed 22 coup attempts, with 13 succeeding. Now, troubling signs suggest another coup may be on the horizon.

Why Thailand’s Military Keeps Seizing Power
Thailand’s military wields unprecedented influence, far beyond most democracies. Army leaders—alongside the monarchy—see themselves as guardians against political chaos, even if that means overthrowing elected governments. This has created a “coup culture”, where military takeovers are normalized.

Key Factors Increasing Coup Risks:
✔ King Vajiralongkorn’s political involvement – Unlike his father, he is more interventionist and reportedly unstable.
✔ Military’s growing impatience with civilian rule – Recent moves suggest the army is reasserting dominance.
✔ Weak coalition government – PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra leads a fragile alliance with pro-military parties.
✔ Border tensions with Cambodia – A recent skirmish has given the military an excuse to flex its power.

Recent Signs Pointing to a Possible Coup
Military Expanding Control

After years of reformist pressure, the army is openly challenging civilian authority.

Top officials, including Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, have refused to rule out another coup.

Crackdown on Dissent

In April, the military charged U.S. scholar Paul Chambers with lèse-majesté (insulting the monarchy), a rare move against foreign academics.

The case angered the White House and disrupted U.S.-Thailand relations, showing the military’s disregard for diplomatic consequences.

Border Conflict Escalation

A deadly clash with Cambodian forces in May gave the military a pretext to assert dominance.

The army has since withheld key information from the civilian government, undermining PM Paetongtarn.

Could the Shinawatra Dynasty Be the Target?
The military has long opposed the Shinawatra family, which includes:

Thaksin Shinawatra (former PM, recently returned from exile)

Paetongtarn Shinawatra (current PM, Thaksin’s daughter)

The army may seek to permanently remove them from politics, possibly through another coup.

International Response: Will the West Intervene?
The Biden administration has shown little interest in Thai democracy.

The Trump campaign has also been silent on the issue.

Without foreign pressure, the military faces few obstacles to another power grab.

What Happens Next?
🔹 If the military moves, it could:

Dissolve parliament

Declare martial law

Install a junta-led government

🔹 If the civilian government survives, it will remain weak and dependent on military-backed parties.

Final Verdict: How Likely Is a Coup?
✅ Highly possible given Thailand’s history and recent military actions.
✅ The king’s stance will be decisive—if he supports a takeover, it’s almost certain.
✅ Foreign inaction removes a major deterrent.