The Vatican’s 2025 Jubilee is set to attract over 30 million pilgrims to Rome, presenting a golden opportunity for the Italian capital to experience an economic surge. However, concerns are growing that the financial impact might fall short of the optimistic projections, with mixed signals emerging from the tourism and real estate sectors.
Rome Prepares for Millions of Pilgrims
With nearly half a million visitors already passing through the Holy Door of St. Peter’s Basilica in the first month of the Jubilee, Rome’s streets should be bustling. Yet, some businesses report a surprising downturn in activity.
Alessandro Galardo, a bed-and-breakfast owner and estate agent in Rome, notes a stark decrease in bookings for January 2025.
“Pilgrims typically choose affordable accommodations that cater to groups, not holiday homes,” Galardo explains. “Additionally, tourists who want to avoid crowds have postponed their visits, leading to a 60–75% drop in bookings compared to previous years.”
Optimistic Projections: €17 Billion in Spending
Italy’s Ministry of Tourism has forecasted the Jubilee to generate up to €4.5 billion for Rome’s economy and €17 billion in total expenditures across the city. Despite these figures, experts caution that such estimates might be inflated.
Filippo Celata, Professor of Economic Geography at Università La Sapienza, believes it’s too early to determine the event’s economic impact.
“The Jubilee is often about driving investments and boosting tourism,” Celata says. “However, projections are usually overestimated. Lessons from previous Jubilees, including the 2000 event, reveal structural effects, such as job creation in lower-income sectors and rising housing costs.”
Rising Rental Costs: A Double-Edged Sword
The housing market in Rome is already feeling the effects of the Jubilee. A report by IZILab and SoloAffitti highlights a 13% rise in rental prices in 2023 compared to 2022, with predictions of a 17% increase this year.
“Rome’s rental market is under strain,” says Martino Bellincampi, CEO of IZILab. “With limited long-term rental properties and many homes converted into holiday accommodations, supply is struggling to meet demand.”
Even with rising prices, many holiday homes remain vacant. Hotels also report similar trends, with Federalberghi president Bernabò Bocca predicting a pickup in tourist arrivals by March but no significant increase over 2024 figures.
Jubilee 2025: A Test for Rome’s Renewal
Rome has long grappled with overtourism and governance challenges. While the Jubilee offers an opportunity for urban renewal, questions remain about whether the city can fully capitalize on this global event.
From inflated projections to housing shortages, the Vatican’s 2025 Jubilee may provide economic opportunities, but it also exposes the systemic challenges facing Rome. Whether it becomes a turning point or a missed opportunity will depend on how well the city navigates these complexities in the months ahead.
