1. Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty
The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of rate cuts below 4% by September 17 dropped from 97.6% to 69.7% in just one day (April 8-9).
FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about stagflation, dampening hopes for aggressive monetary easing.
2. 10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility
A declining 10-year yield signals weakening confidence in US debt sustainability.
Economist Peter Boockvar warns: “Foreign investors may continue reducing US Treasury holdings.”
Rising yields could increase debt rollover costs, further pressuring the US dollar.
3. Bitcoin Derivatives Show Mixed Signals
BTC futures premium briefly exceeded 5% but failed to sustain momentum.
Options skew spiked to 12% (bearish) before stabilizing at 3% (neutral) post-tariff news.
Perpetual futures funding rates remain in a neutral range (0.4%-1.4%), indicating no extreme leverage demand.
Key Takeaways for Crypto Investors
✅ Short-term bullish momentum from tariff pause
⚠️ Long-term caution due to Fed policy & bond market risks
📉 Derivatives suggest traders are waiting for clearer signals
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Macroeconomic data (inflation, jobs reports) will dictate Fed rate decisions.
BTC price stability above $80K could attract stronger institutional interest.
A break above $85K may confirm a new bullish phase.
