Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD Hit $2,957 as Markets Eye US NFP Data?

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are holding steady at $2,908, reflecting a slight 0.07% increase as investors await the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Despite minor profit-taking, gold remains on track for a weekly gain, driven by concerns over inflation, trade policies, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

Gold Market Overview: NFP Report in Focus

The upcoming U.S. NFP report, set for release at 13:30 GMT, is the key market event. Analysts predict a job gain of 160,000 for February, offering critical insights into labor market strength and potential Fed policy shifts. A stronger-than-expected report could bolster the U.S. dollar (DXY), exerting downward pressure on gold, while a weaker reading may fuel speculation about rate cuts, providing bullish momentum for XAU/USD.

Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Strengthens Amid Economic Uncertainty

Gold’s safe-haven status is reinforced by ongoing trade uncertainties and shifting monetary policies. President Donald Trump’s suspension of 25% tariffs on key Canadian and Mexican goods has introduced volatility, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish stance against near-term rate cuts adds complexity to market sentiment. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains near a four-month low, indicating weaker economic confidence, which traditionally supports gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Breakout Signals

Gold continues to trade within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling a potential breakout. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,904 serves as dynamic support, while resistance near $2,930 is capping further upward movement.

• Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $2,930 could trigger a rally toward $2,957 and $2,982, reinforcing upward momentum.
• Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to hold support at $2,904, a retracement toward $2,859 and $2,832 could follow.

Will US NFP Data Drive the Next Move for Gold?

Traders should closely watch gold’s reaction at the $2,930 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this point could pave the way for further gains, while a rejection may signal a period of consolidation or a potential downside correction.

With economic data playing a crucial role in shaping market sentiment, gold’s next move hinges on the strength of U.S. job data and its impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations. Stay tuned for market updates as price action unfolds.