{"id":15520,"date":"2025-09-11T06:37:49","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T06:37:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/?p=15520"},"modified":"2025-09-11T06:37:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T06:37:49","slug":"uk-economic-slowdown-increases-likelihood-of-august-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/?p=15520","title":{"rendered":"UK Economic Slowdown Increases Likelihood of August Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/11%209\/a1.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/5.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/IMG_20240623_122812_510-8.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><br \/>\nThe UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% contraction in April, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data. While Chancellor Rachel Reeves called the figures &#8220;disappointing,&#8221; economists now believe an August interest rate cut is highly probable as the Bank of England seeks to stimulate growth.<\/p>\n<p>Key Economic Takeaways<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcc9 GDP Decline: Two consecutive months of contraction signal weakening economic momentum.<br \/>\n\ud83c\udfe6 Rate Cut Odds Rise: Markets now price in a 70% chance of a cut in August (down from 5.25%).<br \/>\n\ud83c\udfe0 Housing Market Holds Steady: Despite economic uncertainty, property demand remains resilient.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s Driving the Slowdown?<br \/>\nTrump\u2019s Trade War Impact<\/p>\n<p>US tariffs on UK exports have dampened trade volumes.<\/p>\n<p>May\u2019s export levels fell to three-year lows.<\/p>\n<p>Post-Stamp Duty Slowdown<\/p>\n<p>A Q1 housing boom (driven by pre-April stamp duty changes) has faded.<\/p>\n<p>However, property supply and demand remain balanced, preventing a crash.<\/p>\n<p>Industrial &#038; Construction Weakness<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing and construction output dragged down May\u2019s GDP.<\/p>\n<p>Experts: August Rate Cut &#8220;Almost Certain&#8221;<br \/>\nWith inflation easing and growth stalling, economists overwhelmingly expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates at its 7 August meeting.<\/p>\n<p>Key Analyst Predictions:<br \/>\n\u2705 Suren Thiru (ICAEW):<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Sluggish GDP makes an August cut inevitable, despite recent inflation volatility.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u2705 Rob Wood (Pantheon Macroeconomics):<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Disappointing GDP locks in high odds for an MPC cut next month.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u2705 Sanjay Raja (Deutsche Bank):<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A 25bps cut in August is almost certain, with more likely in Q4.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\u2705 Ellie Henderson (Investec):<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Lower rates will support growth, but a looser labour market may limit upside.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>What This Means for You<br \/>\nBorrowers &#038; Homebuyers<br \/>\nMortgage rates are already falling, with lenders trimming fixed deals.<\/p>\n<p>A BoE cut could push 5-year fixes below 4% (currently ~4.25%).<\/p>\n<p>Savers<br \/>\nSavings rates will dip further\u2014consider locking in top fixes now.<\/p>\n<p>Investors<br \/>\nUK equities (especially homebuilders &#038; banks) may rally on cheaper credit.<\/p>\n<p>The Road Ahead<br \/>\nWhile the UK avoids a technical recession (two straight quarters of decline), the BoE faces pressure to act. All eyes are now on:<br \/>\n\ud83d\uddd3\ufe0f 7 August MPC meeting \u2013 Will Mark Bailey cut rates?<br \/>\n\ud83d\udcca June inflation data \u2013 A further drop could seal the deal.<br \/>\n<img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/11%209\/a1.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/11%209\/a.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/11%209\/a2.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"Sirv\" data-src=\"https:\/\/chartakelay.sirv.com\/Images\/11%209\/a3.jpg\" alt=\"\"><br \/>\n<script src=\"https:\/\/scripts.sirv.com\/sirvjs\/v3\/sirv.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% contraction in April, according to the latest Office for &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"","rank_math_keywords":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15520"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15522,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15520\/revisions\/15522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lotayamedia.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}